The price of acetic acid is rising rapidly, and the supply of it shrinks due to the domestic and foreign plant maintenance. Since the beginning of May, after more than half a year of shock correction, the domestic acetic acid price has rebounded rapidly. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of June 2, the price of domestic acetic acid is 5721 yuan per ton, which is up about 56.1% compared to April 30.
In terms of international prices, there has also been an obvious increase since 2022. According to Ifind data, as of June 2, the FOB prices of acetic acid in northwest Europe and the US coast are 1700 dollars per ton and 2000 dollars per ton respectively, which is up 25.9% and 10.2% respectively compared with the prices at the beginning of the year. In terms of domestic production capacity, the acetic acid plants of Celanese, Yankuang, Nanjing Yangzi and other manufacturers have been put into maintenance one after another, which causes the domestic acetic acid production capacity decreases nearly 30%. Subsequently, Anhui Huayi, Shanghai Huayi and other acetic acid plants are also expected to perform plant overhauls in June or the second half of 2022. In terms of overseas production capacity, recently, the three major American acetic acid producers, Celanese, Ineos and leandre Bassel have shut down their acetic acid plants due to the interruption of raw material supply or other force majeure factors, with a shutdown capacity of about 2.7 million tons per year, accounting for about 90% of the acetic acid production capacity in the United States.
PTA demand recovers and EVA demand maintains a high growth,which drivies the downstream application of acetic acid. Among the downstream products of acetic acid, PTA and vinyl acetate is in the top two. We think that with the gradual recovery of demand in the polyester filament industry, PTA demand will also be ushered inmarginal improvement, thus driving the demand for acetic acid. In addition, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the domestic PTA capacity will increase by 29.7 million tons per year from the second half of 2022 to 2024, and the corresponding new acetic acid demand will reach to 1.188 million tons per year. As for vinyl acetate, with the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry and the conduction of the "Acetic Acid -Vinyl Acetate EVA" industrial chain, the substantial increase in EVA demand will also bring about a large increase in acetic acid demand. From 2022 to 2026, China's major EVA manufacturers plan to increase their production capacity by a total of 3.278 million tons per year. According to acetic acid: vinyl acetate: EVA=0.7:1:1.6, in the future, the new domestic EVA production capacity will bring about 1.434 million tons per year of acetic acid demand increase. Moreover, in the current case of contraction in the supply of acetic acid in the United States, the amount of acetic acid exported to the United States and Europe is expected to increase in China . Based on the current price difference of acetic acid at home and abroad, product export will also bring huge profits to China's acetic acid enterprises.